Most traders learn chart patterns from a YouTube video or a quick blog post. They memorize shapes—head and shoulders, double bottoms, triangles—without ever asking the question that actually matters: do these patterns work, and how often?
Thomas Bulkowski spent 40+ years answering that question. His site, ThePatternSite.com, is a free encyclopedia of chart pattern research backed by thousands of analyzed trades. Every pattern comes with failure rates, average price moves, target achievement percentages, and practical trading guidelines. It’s the kind of resource that institutional traders pay thousands for—except Bulkowski gives it away for free.
Whether you trade crypto, stocks, or options, understanding chart patterns through a statistical lens will change how you approach technical analysis. Let’s break down what The Pattern Site offers and how to use it.
Who is Thomas Bulkowski?
Thomas Bulkowski isn’t your typical trading influencer. He’s an engineer-turned-trader who retired at age 36 from his day job, funding his early retirement entirely through market profits. With over 40 years of market experience, he’s written seven trading books—including the widely referenced Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (now in its 3rd edition)—and published more than 130 articles in major trading publications. His work has been translated into over a dozen languages.
What makes Bulkowski different from most technical analysis voices is his methodology. He doesn’t just draw lines on charts and tell you what he thinks will happen. He catalogs thousands of real trades, measures actual outcomes, and publishes the raw statistics. If a pattern fails 38% of the time, he’ll tell you. If the average move is only 9%, he won’t pretend it’s a home run.
This commitment to data-driven honesty is what makes The Pattern Site uniquely valuable.
What The Pattern Site Offers
Since its founding in November 2006, The Pattern Site has grown to over 1,500 pages of free investment content, drawing 1.2+ million annual visits. Here’s what you’ll find:
The Chart Pattern Library
The core of the site is its alphabetical index of 150+ chart patterns, organized into clear categories:
- Reversal Patterns: Head-and-shoulders (tops and bottoms), double/triple bottoms and tops, V-bottoms, broadening formations
- Continuation Patterns: Flags, pennants, ascending/descending/symmetrical triangles, rectangles
- Gap Patterns: Breakaway gaps, exhaustion gaps, continuation gaps
- Volume Patterns: Dome-shaped, U-shaped, and other volume formations
- Candlestick Patterns: Dozens of Japanese candlestick formations
- Event Patterns: Earnings surprises, FDA approvals, and other catalyst-driven patterns
- Elliott Wave: Wave formations and applications
Each pattern has its own dedicated page with consistent, structured data that makes comparison straightforward.
What You Get on Every Pattern Page
This is where The Pattern Site separates itself from every other technical analysis resource. Each pattern page includes:
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| Overall Rank | How the pattern performs vs. all other patterns |
| Failure Rate | Percentage of trades where the pattern fails to produce a meaningful move |
| Average Rise/Decline | The typical price movement after a valid breakout |
| Throwback/Pullback Rate | How often price returns to the breakout level |
| Target Achievement | Percentage of trades that reach the calculated price target |
| Sample Size | Number of real trades analyzed |
Beyond the numbers, each page includes identification guidelines (what the pattern should look like), volume analysis, trading tips, and common mistakes traders make.
Top Performing Patterns by the Numbers
Bulkowski ranks all patterns against each other. Here are some standout performers based on his research:
| Pattern | Rank | Failure Rate | Avg Move | Target Hit Rate | Trades Analyzed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cup with Handle | #3 of 39 | 5% | +54% | 61% | 913 |
| Head & Shoulders Top | #9 of 36 | 19% | -16% | 51% | 2,800+ |
| Ascending Triangle (Up) | #16 of 39 | 17% | +43% | 70% | 1,400+ |
| Adam & Eve Double Bottom | #17 of 39 | 12% | +43% | 69% | 1,020 |
| Ascending Triangle (Down) | #30 of 36 | 38% | -13% | 44% | 1,400+ |
| Flag (Up) | N/A | 44% | +9% | 46% | N/A |
A few things jump out immediately:
The Cup with Handle is elite. A 5% failure rate with a 54% average rise is exceptional. If you learn one bullish pattern, this is a strong candidate.
Failure rates vary wildly. The Cup with Handle fails 5% of the time. Flags fail 44% of the time. Knowing this before you enter a trade is the difference between informed risk-taking and gambling.
Direction matters for triangles. Ascending triangles break upward 63% of the time with strong performance (43% average rise, 70% target hit rate). But when they break down, the failure rate jumps to 38% and the average move shrinks to just 13%. The same pattern produces very different odds depending on the breakout direction.
The Measure Rule: Calculating Price Targets
One of the most practical tools on The Pattern Site is the measure rule—a formula for calculating realistic price targets based on pattern dimensions.
The Formula
For upward breakouts:
Target = Breakout Price + ((Pattern High - Pattern Low) × Percentage)For downward breakouts:
Target = Breakout Price - ((Pattern High - Pattern Low) × Percentage)The key is that each pattern has its own percentage multiplier derived from Bulkowski’s statistical analysis. You don’t just add the full pattern height—you scale it by how far price typically travels.
Example: Broadening Top
Suppose you identify a broadening top with:
- Pattern high: $25
- Pattern low: $20
- Breakout price: $22
Upward target: $22 + (($25 - $20) × 66%) = $25.30
Downward target: $22 - (($25 - $20) × 42%) = $19.90
The percentages (66% and 42%) come directly from Bulkowski’s analysis of how broadening tops have performed historically. This approach gives you a statistically grounded price target instead of guessing where price “might” go.
Why This Matters
Many traders set arbitrary targets without any framework behind the number. The measure rule gives you a systematic way to set targets based on the actual pattern forming on your chart, scaled by historical performance data.
Busted Patterns: When Failure Becomes Opportunity
One of Bulkowski’s most contrarian insights is his research on busted patterns—situations where a chart pattern breaks out in one direction, moves less than 10%, then reverses and breaks out the opposite way.
Why Busted Patterns Matter
Most traders view a failed breakout as a loss and move on. Bulkowski’s data shows that busted patterns often produce stronger moves than successful ones. His theory: when a breakout fails, it traps traders on the wrong side. The resulting reversal is fueled by their forced exits, creating powerful momentum.
Key Statistics
- Triple bottoms that bust in bull markets average 37% gains on the reversal
- Failed triple tops in bull markets average 42% gains
- Single busts occur about 19% of the time
- Double and triple busts (multiple reversals) are rare at roughly 1% each
Practical Takeaway
If you see a clean breakout fail and reverse through the pattern, don’t dismiss it. The busted pattern may actually offer a higher-probability trade than the original setup. The Pattern Site has detailed pages covering busted variations of ascending triangles, descending triangles, double/triple bottoms and tops, head-and-shoulders formations, rectangles, and symmetrical triangles.
The Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI)
Beyond individual patterns, Bulkowski created a market-level timing tool called the Chart Pattern Indicator. Introduced in 2007, the CPI measures the ratio of bullish to total chart pattern breakouts across roughly 600 securities.
How It Works
The CPI uses the NR7 (Narrow Range 7) pattern as its base signal:
- Identify NR7 patterns across the stock universe
- Track whether each pattern breaks out bullishly (price closes above) or bearishly (price closes below)
- Breakouts must occur within 7 calendar days or the pattern is discarded
- Calculate: CPI = 100 × Bullish Total / (Bullish + Bearish Total)
Reading the CPI
| CPI Level | Signal |
|---|---|
| Above 65 | Bullish — more patterns breaking out to the upside |
| 35 to 65 | Neutral — mixed signals |
| Below 35 | Bearish — more patterns breaking out to the downside |
Important Caveats
Bulkowski is transparent about the CPI’s limitations:
- Signals up to a week old can change or disappear as new data comes in
- Signals typically stabilize after 3 trading days
- The indicator requires approximately 125+ securities for reliable results
- Results vary with different stock universes and data inputs
This kind of honest disclosure about a tool’s weaknesses is rare in the trading education space—and it’s exactly why Bulkowski’s work is worth trusting.
How to Use The Pattern Site in Your Trading
Here’s a practical workflow for incorporating The Pattern Site into your analysis:
Step 1: Identify the Pattern
When you spot a potential chart pattern forming on any asset—crypto, stocks, or ETFs—go to the Chart Patterns Index and find the matching pattern.
Step 2: Check the Statistics
Before considering a trade, review the pattern’s page for:
- Failure rate: Is this a reliable pattern or a coin flip?
- Average move: Is the expected move worth the risk?
- Breakout direction tendency: Does this pattern favor upward or downward breakouts?
Step 3: Calculate Your Target
Use the measure rule with the pattern-specific percentage to set a realistic price target. Don’t anchor to round numbers or wishful thinking.
Step 4: Plan for Failure
Check the busted pattern statistics. If the pattern fails, what does the reversal typically look like? Having a plan for both outcomes keeps you ahead of the crowd.
Step 5: Confirm with Volume
Most pattern pages include volume analysis. Declining volume during pattern formation followed by increasing volume on the breakout is a common confirmation signal across many patterns.
Why Every Technical Trader Should Bookmark This Site
The Pattern Site fills a critical gap in trading education. Most resources teach you what patterns look like. Bulkowski teaches you how they actually perform—with receipts.
It’s completely free. No registration, no paywall, no tracking. Bulkowski has published 1,500+ pages of research and asks for nothing in return except that you respect the copyright on his content.
It’s data-driven. Every claim is backed by sample sizes in the hundreds or thousands. When Bulkowski says the Cup with Handle has a 5% failure rate, it’s based on 913 analyzed trades—not a handful of cherry-picked examples.
It’s honest. When a pattern has a 44% failure rate (like flags), he tells you. When his CPI signals can disappear after a week, he discloses it. This kind of intellectual honesty is invaluable in an industry full of hype.
Whether you’re a swing trader hunting stock setups, a crypto trader timing entries, or an options player looking for an edge, The Pattern Site belongs in your toolkit. The statistical foundation it provides will make you a more disciplined, data-informed trader—and that’s an edge that compounds over time.
Resources
- ThePatternSite.com — Thomas Bulkowski’s main site
- Chart Patterns Index — Alphabetical listing of 150+ patterns
- Chart Pattern Indicator (CPI) — Market timing tool
- Pattern Rankings — Compare pattern performance
- Busted Patterns — When failed patterns become opportunities
- Measure Rule — Price target calculation methodology
- Visual Chart Patterns Index — Visual guide to patterns
- Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 3rd Edition by Thomas Bulkowski — The comprehensive reference book